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November 2006
THE DEMISE OF FIELD CONNECTOR INSTALLATION
Executive Summary
In this issue, we demonstrate that the future of field connector installation is in question. This situation arises from the advent of low cost fusion splicers developed for use in FTTH installations. These splicers change the total installed cost analysis from favoring field installation of connectors to favoring fusion-spliced pigtails. The impacts of this change are:
v
Manufacturers
of low cost fusion splicers can anticipate increased sales from field
installers.
v
Manufacturers
of cleave and crimp designs can expect reduced sales.
v
Pigtail
sales volume will increase.
v
Installers
will experience increased profits from reduced installation labor cost.
The analyses demonstrate a break-even of between 725 and 3000 connectors, depending on the method of installation, the cost of the splicer, and the total loaded labor rate. Above the break even number, the installer has recovered the cost of the splicer and experiences reduced total installed cost. This break-even range indicates the potential for significantly increased purchases of low cost fusions splicers by installation organizations.
One caveat is that fusion splicing of multimode fibers not result in reduced bandwidth due to disruption of the IR profile. The data on this concern are mixed.
Introduction
The advent of low cost fusion splicers reduces the equipment cost for installation of connectors from previous levels. In the past, fusion splicers cost $10,000-$30,000. At this time, fusion splicers are available below $10,000. This reduction in cost changes the total installed cost analysis. This reduction in cost reduces the total number of connectors that must be installed to recover the cost of the splicer. With this reduction in number, savvy installation firms will find fusion splicing of pigtails to be less expensive, and more profitable, than field installation of connectors.
In this issue, we present a model for estimating the total installed cost (TIC) of connectors. With this model, we compare the TIC of connectors installed by three methods to the TIC of fusion-spliced pigtails. The three methods are: Hot Melt adhesive, cleave and crimp, and epoxy.
As the results of any comparison depend on the assumptions made, we present this model as a method of determining the conditions under which fusion spliced pigtails become the method of choice. The cost factors presented in this issue are generic and are not meant to represent the values that all installers will pay.
The Basic Model
The basic cost model has two parts: the cost for splicing pigtails and the cost for field installation of connectors. The model enables estimation of a break even number of connectors. This break even number is the number of connectors that the installation organization must install in order to recover the cost of the splicer through reduced TIC.
Splicing of pigtails includes material and labor costs. The material costs are:
v
Amortized
cost of the splicer
v
A splice
tray
v
A splice
cover
v
A pigtail
v
Yield of
splices
We examine two splicer costs, $7200 and $8500. These costs include the cost of a precision cleaver, which is required for high yield. We assume a splice tray cost of $13 and a splice cover cost of $0.40. Since the tray will allow 12 splices, the tray and cover cost is $1.48 per splice.
We assume that the installer purchases a 900-µ pigtail with connectors on both ends. We estimate the cost of this pigtail at $5.75 for multimode fiber and $7 for singlemode fiber. We believe these prices to be close to market prices in a competitive situation.
We assume a splice yield of 98 %. This value is consistent with our experience in both field splicing and training programs.
The labor costs are:
v
Time to
make the splice
v
Total
loaded labor rate
v
Utilization
of labor time
v
Yield
We assume a splicing time of 3 minutes. This time assumes that the cable end is prepared and ready for splicing. This time includes the time to strip the fiber, install the splice cover, clean the fiber, cleave the fiber, make the splice, shrink the splice cover, and place the splice in the splice tray. Placement of the tray and the connector into the enclosure is not included as this time will be approximately the same for both splicing and field installation of connectors.
Field installation of connectors includes material and labor costs. The material costs are:
v
Connector
cost
v
Tooling
cost
v
Supply cost
v
Yield
The connector cost depends on the style (ST, SC, LC), the method of installation (Hot Melt, cleave and crimp, epoxy) and the fiber mode. We will present various values, which we believe to be typical market prices.
The tooling cost depends on the method of installation, with epoxy and Hot Melt tools at $500 and cleave tools and crimp tools at either $1700 or $1000. We will present an explanation of this price difference.
Supplies include epoxy, syringes, polishing films, alcohol, batteries for microscope, etc. Such supplies are needed for epoxy and Hot Melt. Fewer supplies are required for cleave and crimp connectors.
Yield depends on the method of installation and the type of cleaver used in the cleave and crimp method. We assume a yield of 95 % for both Hot Melt and epoxy methods. We assume a yield of 95 % for the cleave and crimp method with a high precision cleaver. We assume a yield of 90 % for the cleave and crimp method with a low cost cleaver. Based on our training experience with the low cost cleavers, we believe the yield of 90 % to be optimistic.
Connector labor factors include:
v
Total
loaded labor rate
v
Labor
utilization
v
Installation
time
We assume a total loaded labor rate of $55/hour. We believe this is a median rate for the US. Rates higher than $55 will result in reducing the number of connectors required to amortize the cost of the fusion splicer. Lower rates result in increasing the number of connectors required to amortize the cost of the fusion splicer. We examine one reduced labor cost, $40/hour.
Labor utilization is the percent of time that the installer spends in the connector installation activity. This factor accounts for time spent in travel to the site, set up of equipment, packing of equipment for the next location, and clean up of the installation site. We assume a value of 80 %. We believe that this value is realistic, though utilization can be as low as 60 %.
The installation time is the time spent installing the connector. This time excludes cable end preparation time and time spent installing the connector into the enclosure.
The installation time depends on the method of installation. This time can vary between 2 and 7.5 minutes per connector.
Comparison 1: Hot Melt Multimode
Connectors And a $7200 Splicer
In the first comparison, we compare the TIC of fusion spliced pigtails to that of Hot melt connectors. To the basic model information presented above, we add the following values:
v
Connector
cost: $4.80
v
Connector
installation time: 4 minutes (15/hour)
v
Supply
cost: $1/connector
As shown in Table 1, the TIC becomes approximately the same at 2200 connectors; the TIC for splicing is $11.14 and for connector installation is $11.17. At this number of connectors, the installer has recovered the cost of the splicer.
Table 1: TIC Comparison For Hot Melt Installation
|
MULTIMODE |
|
Pigtail Splice |
|
Pigtail Splice |
||
|
If splicer costs |
|
7200 |
$ |
|
7200 |
$ |
|
If 900µ double end
pigtail costs |
|
5.75 |
$ |
|
5.75 |
$ |
|
If yield is |
|
98% |
|
|
98% |
|
|
If number of
connectors is |
|
2200 |
|
|
4400 |
|
|
If splice tray and
cover cost is |
|
1.48 |
$ |
|
1.48 |
$ |
|
If time to splice is |
|
3 |
Minutes |
|
3 |
Minutes |
|
If utilization is |
|
80% |
|
|
80% |
|
|
Total loaded labor
rate |
|
55 |
$/hour |
|
55 |
$/hour |
|
Total cost of
connector installation is |
|
|
11.14 |
|
|
9.50 |
|
Savings for quantity |
|
|
66.75 |
|
|
6807.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Hot Melt |
|
|
Hot Melt |
|
|
If connector cost is |
|
4.8 |
$ |
|
4.8 |
$ |
|
If yield is |
|
95% |
|
|
95% |
|
|
If installation time
is |
|
4 |
Minutes |
|
4 |
Minutes |
|
If utilization is |
|
80% |
|
|
80% |
|
|
If supply cost is |
|
1 |
$ |
|
1 |
$ |
|
If tooling cost is |
|
500 |
$ |
|
500 |
$ |
|
Total cost of
connector installation is |
|
|
11.17 |
|
|
11.05 |
Of significance is the net savings that the installer experiences at 4400 connectors: $6807 (Table 1).
Comparison 2: Cleave And Crimp
Multimode Connectors And a $7200 Splicer
In the second comparison, we compare the TIC of fusion spliced pigtails to that of cleave and crimp connectors. To the basic model information presented above, we add the following values:
v
Connector
cost: $12
v
Connector
installation time: 2 minutes (30/hour)
v
Supply
cost: $0.40/connector
v
Tooling
cost: $1700
The tooling cost includes a high precision cleaver. We recommend this type of cleaver, as our training and testing experience has shown this cleaver provides increased yield and reduced loss. As shown in Table 2, the TIC becomes approximately the same at 725 connectors; the TIC for splicing is $17.80 and for connector installation is $17.93. At this number of connectors, the installer has recovered the cost of the splicer.
Table 2: TIC Comparison For Cleave And Crimp Connectors
|
MULTIMODE |
|
Pigtail Splice |
|
Pigtail Splice |
||
|
If splicer costs |
|
7200 |
$ |
|
7200 |
$ |
|
If 900µ double end
pigtail costs |
|
5.75 |
$ |
|
5.75 |
$ |
|
If yield is |
|
98% |
|
|
98% | |